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Industrial and Service Productivity Spillovers to Agricultural CO₂ Emissions in Türkiye and Uzbekistan, 2002–2024: Ecological Insights from an Exploratory Time-Series Analysis

Authors

  • Eshbayev Oybek Email ORCID Department of Digital Economy, Tashkent State University of Economics, Tashkent 100066, Uzbekistan
  • Shakirova Dilfuza ORCID Environment, Ecology, and Sustainable Development Faculty, Central Asian University of Environmental and Climate Change Studies, Green University, Darkhan 111104, Uzbekistan
  • Zufarova Nozima ORCID Faculty of International Tourism, Tashkent State University of Economics, Tashkent 100066, Uzbekistan
  • Kobilov Alisher ORCID Department of Digital Economy, Tashkent State University of Economics, Tashkent 100066, Uzbekistan
  • Umarova Rozigul ORCID Department of Social Sciences, Tashkent State Transport University, Tashkent 100167, Uzbekistan
  • Haydarov Abror ORCID Department of Social Sciences, Tashkent State Transport University, Tashkent 100167, Uzbekistan
  • Ergasheva Nasiba ORCID Department of English Language, Tashkent Institute of Irrigation and Agricultural Mechanization Engineers, National Research University, Tashkent 100000, Uzbekistan

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.30564/re.v8i5.117301

Received:12 August 2026 |Revised:21 September 2026 |Accepted:24 September 2026 |Published Online:28 October 2026

Abstract

This exploratory study asks whether productivity growth in industry and services is associated with subsequent changes in agricultural CO₂ emissions in Türkiye and Uzbekistan, and whether emissions in turn feed back into sectoral productivity. We use annual World Development Indicators (WDI) for 2002–2024 (23 observations per country): agricultural CO₂ emissions, CO₂ emissions per capita, agricultural value added and employment, and value added per worker in industry and services. After augmented Dickey–Fuller tests, the relationships were examined with Johansen trace tests and country-specific bivariate vector autoregressions with two lags. The Johansen tests select full rank in both countries, which points to stationarity in levels rather than to a cointegrating relationship; given the known small-sample bias of the trace test, we do not read it as evidence of a long-run equilibrium. None of the lagged productivity terms in the agricultural emission equations is significant (p = 0.162–0.804). In the reverse direction, a rise in agricultural emissions is followed by higher service productivity in both countries, by higher industrial productivity in Türkiye and by lower industrial productivity in Uzbekistan (first-lag p ≤ 0.028). In these two transition economies, productivity gains outside agriculture do not translate automatically into lower agricultural emissions. With so short a sample, the results are best read as hypotheses for further testing rather than as estimates of causal spillovers.

Keywords:

Agricultural CO₂ Emissions, Sectoral Productivity, Structural Transformation, Environmental Kuznets Curve, Vector Autoregression, Transition Economies, Türkiye, Uzbekistan

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2026 Vol.8 No.5

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Copyright © 2026 Eshbayev Oybek, Shakirova Dilfuza, Zufarova Nozima, Kobilov Alisher, Umarova Rozigul, Haydarov Abror, Ergasheva Nasiba

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