Publication Frequency Changed
2025-01-14
Long-Term Hydrologic Variability in the Instrumental Record of California Climate
Authors
-
Steven Lund
Department of Earth Sciences, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA 90089, USA
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.30564/jees.v7i1.6987Abstract
This study characterizes the instrumental record of California climate for the last 170 years. Our goal is to look for hydrologic variability at decadal and longer time scales that would be consistent with paleoclimate estimates of hydrologic variability in California for the last 3000 years. Our study focuses on meteorological summaries of annual precipitation and temperature. The precipitation records go back as far as 1850; the temperature records go back as far as 1880. California hydrologic records show strong variability at the interannual level due to ENSO forcing. They also all show a strong decadal (~14 yr) cyclicity and evidence for multi-decadal to centennial variability that is consistent with California paleoclimate studies. California temperature records show a long-term warming of 5 °F−6 °F (2.8 °C−3.4 °C) associated with global warming, but there is no evidence for a similar long-term trend in hydrologic variability. Long-term Pacific Ocean variability adjacent to central and northern California, Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO), show a similar decadal to centennial pattern of variability that we associate with our long-term hydrologic variability. The positive phase of the NPGO and the negative phase of the PDO are associated with the decadal scale (~14 yr) dry cycles in California for the last 70 years.
Keywords:
California Climate; California Hydrologic Variability; California Rainfall; California Temperature; Global WarmingReferences
[1] Platzman, E., Lund, S., 2018. High-resolution environmental magnetic study of a Holocene sedimentary record from Zaca Lake, California. Holocene. 29, 17–25.
[2] Lund, S., Mortazavi, E., Platzman, E., et al., 2021. The last 1200 years of rainfall/runoff variability along the central Mexico Pacific coast associated with the North American Monsoon. Oceans. 2, 530–545.
[3] Lund, S., Benson, L., Platzman, E., 2022, A comparison of late-Holocene hydrologic variability in California: Regionality of multi-decadal to centennial-scale droughts. Holocene. 32(7), 735–744. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1177/09596836221088234
[4] Kestin, T., Karoly, D., Yano, J., 1998, Time-frequency variability of ENSO and stochastic simulations. Journal of Climate. 11, 2258–2272.
[5] Pathak, T., Maskey, M., Dahlberg, J., et al., 2018, Climate tends and impacts on California agriculture: A detailed review. Agronomy. 8, 8030025.
[6] LaDochy, S., Medina, R., Patzert, W., 2007. Recent California climate variability: Spatial and temporal patterns in temperature trends. Climate Science. 33, 159–169.
[7] Barton, C., 1983. Analysis of paleomagnetic time series—Techniques and applications. Geophys Surveys. 5, 335–368.
[8] Paillard, D., Labeyrei, L., Yiou, P., 1996. Macintosh program performs time series analysis. EOS, Transactions American Geophysical Union. 77(39), 379.
[9] Anderson, N., 1974. On the Calculation of filter coefficients for maximum entropy spectral analysis. Geophysics. 39, 1–113.
[10] Denham, C., 1975. Spectral analysis of paleomagnetic time series. Journal of Geophysical Research. 80(14). 1897–1901. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1029/jb080i14p01897
[11] Cheng, R., Novak, L., Schneider, T., 2021. Predicting the interannual variability of California's total annual precipitation. Geophysical Research Letters. 48(7), e2020GL091465. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL091465
[12] Gonzalez-Perez, A., Alvarez-Estaban, R., Penas, A., et al., 2022, Analysis of recent rainfall trens and links to teleconnection pattern is California (USA). Journal of Hydrology. 612, 128211.
[13] Mantua, N.J., Hare, S.R., Zhang, Y., et al., 1997. A Pacific interdecadal climate oscillation with impacts on salmon production. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. 78, 1069–1079.
[14] Mantua, N., Hare, S., 2002. The Pacific Decadal Oscillation. Journal of Oceanography. 58, 35–44.
[15] Zhang, L., Delworth, T., 2016. Simulated response to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation to climate change. Journal of Climate. 29, 5999–6016,
[16] Di Lorenzo, E., Miller, A.J., Schneider, N., et al., 2005. The warming of the California current system: Dynamics and ecosystem implications. Journal of Physical Oceanography. 35, 336–362.
[17] Di Lorenzo, E., Schneider, N., Cobb, K., et al., 2008. North Pacific gyre circulation links ocean climate and ecosystem change. Geophysical Research Letters. 35, L08707.
[18] Di Lorenzo, E., Fiechter, J., Scheider, N., et al., 2009, Nutrient and salinity decadal variations in the central and eastern North Pacific. Geophysical Research Letters. 36, L14601.
[19] Yi, D., Zhang, L., Wu, L., 2015. On the mechanisms of decadal variability of the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation over the 20th Century. Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans. 120, 6114–6129.
[20] MacDonald, G., Case, R., 2005. Variations in the Pacific Decadal Oscillation over the past millennium. Geophysical Research Letters. 32(8). DOI: https://doi.org/10.1029/2005GL022478
Downloads
How to Cite
Lund, S. (2025). Long-Term Hydrologic Variability in the Instrumental Record of California Climate. Journal of Environmental & Earth Sciences, 7(1), 494–502. https://doi.org/10.30564/jees.v7i1.6987
Issue
Article Type
Article
License
Copyright © 2025 Steven Lund
This is an open access article under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International (CC BY-NC 4.0) License.
