Long Term Variability of Extreme Sea Surface Temperature in the Gulf of Tonkin, China

Authors

  • Yichun Lin

    Key Laboratory of the Ministry of Education for Coastal and Wetland Ecosystems, College of the Environment and Ecology, Xiamen University, Xiamen 361102, China
  • Adekunle Osinowo

    Department of Marine Science and Technology, Federal University of Technology, Akure 340252, Ondo State, Nigeria

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.30564/jees.v7i1.7268
Received: 12 September 2024 | Revised: 18 September 2024 | Accepted: 18 September 2024 | Published Online: 13 December 2024

Abstract

Till date, no study on trends in extreme sea surface temperature (SST) for different return periods has been done over the Gulf of Tonkin (GoT). Based on a 84-year (1940-2023) ERA5 Reanalysis data sets, this study for the first time, examined the spatio-temporal pattern in extreme SST for different return periods. Findings showed that more significant moderate to fast warming trends (0.1-0.16 °C per decade (dec-1)) only existed for the 2 year return period. Temporal trends in the 99th percentile SST are insignificant for all return periods. By using the linear regression method, the variability in extreme SST was obtained. Results showed that moderate warming trends dominated a large portion of GoT. Stronger trends, up to 0.018°C yr-1 are noticed near Guangdong, Haikou and southern Sanya in south China. Extreme SST exhibited a slow warming trend of 0.008 °C per year (yr-1) all through the study years. The SST is most stable in most waters in the southern GoT and few waters surrounding Dongfang. Temporal warming rates of SST revealed that 1940-1958, 1976-1994 and 2003-2012 were years of more coastal upwelling and could affect aquatic lives. The strongest warming rate of 0.07°C dec-1 occurred during 1994-2003. The GoT appeared warmer during spring. Spatial decadal variability of SST revealed that moderate warming trends occurred in few regions in the southern GoT and in larger portion of the central and northern GoT. The rise in SST between 1980 and 2020 in the GoT is not limited to increased anthropogenic activities.

Keywords:

Significant; Trends; Return Periods; Spatio-Temporal; Decade; Index

References

[1] Groves, C.R., Game, E.T., Anderson M.G., et al., 2012. Incorporating Climate Change into Systematic Conservation Planning. Biodiversity and. Conservation. 21, 1651–1671. DOI: https://doi.org/10.100 7/s10531-012-0269-3. .

[2] Watson, J.E., Rao, M., Ai-Li K., et al., 2012. Climate Change Adaptation Planning for Biodiversity conservation: A Review. Advances in Climate Change Research. 3, 1–11.

[3] Levitus, S., Antonov, J., Boyer, T., 2005. Warming of the World Ocean, 1955–2003. Geophysical Research Letters. 32(2), L02604.

[4] Trenberth, K.E., Jones, P.D., Ambenje, P., et al., 2007. Observations: Surface and Atmospheric Climate Change. In: Solomon, S., Qin, D., Manning, M., et al. (Eds.). Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK; New York, NY, USA. pp. 235–336.

[5] Fyfe, J.C., Gillett, N.P., Zwiers, F, 2013. Overestimated Global Warming over the Past 20 years. Nature Climate Change. 3(9), 767–769. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1972

[6] Schmidt, G.A., Shindell, D.T., Tsigaridis, K., 2014. Reconciling Warming Trends. Nature Geoscience. 7(3), 158–160. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo2105

[7] Knight, J., Kennedy, J.J., Folland, C., et al., 2009. Do Global Temperature Trends over the Last Decade Falsify Climate Predictions? In State of the Climate in 2008. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. 90(8), 22–23.

[8] Meehl, G.A., Arblaster, J.M., Fasullo, J.T., et al., 2011. Model-based Evidence of Deep-ocean Heat Uptake during Surface-temperature Hiatus Periods. Nature Climate Change. 1(7), 360–364. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1229

[9] Blunden, J., Arndt, D.S., 2015. State of the Climate in 2014. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. 96(7), ES1–ES32. DOI: 10.1175/2015BAMSStateoftheClimate.1

[10] Blunden, J., Arndt, D.S., 2016. State of the Climate in 2015. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. 97(8), Si–S275. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1175/2016BAMSStateoftheClimate.1

[11] Blunden, J., Arndt, D.S., 2017. State of the Climate in 2016. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. 98(8), Si–S280. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1175/2017BAMSStateoftheClimate.1

[12] Blunden, J., Arndt, D.S., Hartfield, G., 2018. State of the Climate in 2017. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. 99(8), S1–S310. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1175/2018BAMSStateoftheClimate.1

[13] Cheng, L., Zhu, J., 2018. 2017 Was the Warmest Year on Record for the Global Ocean. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences. 35, 3261–3263.

[14] Falvey, M., Garreaud, R.D., 2009. Regional Cooling in A Warming World: Recent Temperature Trends in the Southeast Pacific and along the West Coast of Subtropical South America (1979–2006). Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres. 114(D4), D04102.

[15] Lluch-Cota, S.E., Tripp-Valdéz, M., Lluch-Cota, D.B., et al. 2013. Recent Trends in Sea Surface Temperature off Mexico. Atmósfera. 26(4), 537–546. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/S0187-6236(13)71094-4

[16] Pinaud, D., Weimerskirch, H., 2002. Ultimate and Proximate Factors Affecting the Breeding Performance of A Marine Top-predator. Oikos. 99, 141–150. DOI: https://doi.org/ 10.1034/j.1600-0706.2002.990114.x

[17] Rolland, V., Barbraud, C., Weimerskirch, H., 2008. Combined Effects of Fisheries and Climate on A Migratory Long-lived Marine Predator. Journal of Applied Ecology. 45, 4–13. DOI: https:// doi.org/10.1111/j.1365 2664.2007.01360.x.

[18] Nevoux, M., Forcada, J., Barbraud, C., et al., 2010. Bet-hedging Response to Environmental Variability, an Intraspecific Comparison. Ecology. 91, 2416–2427. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1890/09-0143.1

[19] Brown, B.E., Dunne, R.P., Goodson, M.S., et al., 2002. Experience Shapes the Susceptibility of A Reef Coral to Bleaching. Coral Reefs. 21, 119–126.

[20] Fitt, W.K., Brown, B.E., Warner, M.E., et al., 2001. Coral Bleaching: Interpretation of Thermal Tolerance Limits and Thermal Thresholds in Tropical Corals. Coral Reefs. 20(1), 51–65.

[21] Vaughan, G.O., Al-Mansoori, N., Burt, J.A., 2019. The Arabian Gulf. In: World Seas: An Environmental Evaluation. Academic Press: New York, NY, USA. pp. 1–23. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-08-100853-9.00001-4

[22] Riegl, B., Purkis, S., 2015. Coral Population Dynamics across Consecutive Mass Mortality Events. Global Change Biology. 21(11), 3995–4005

[23] Vu Duy, V., Ouillon, S., Nguyen Minh, H., 2022. Sea Surface Temperature Trend Analysis by Mann-Kendall Test and Sen's Slope Estimator: A Study of the Hai Phong Coastal Area (Vietnam) for the period 1995-2020. Vietnam Journal of Earth Sciences. 44(1), 73–91. DOI: https://doi.org/10.15625/2615-9783/16874

[24] Tac, V.V., Huan, N.H., Son, T.P.H., et al., 2020. Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly in the Coastal Waters of Vietnam Related to ENSO Phenomenon. Vietnam Journal of Marine Science and Technology. 20(1), 1–11. DOI: https://doi.org/10.15625/1859-3097/20/1/15038

[25] Alosairi, Y., Alsulaiman, N., Rashed, A., 2020. World Record Extreme Sea Surface Temperatures in the Northwestern Arabian/Persian Gulf Verified by In Situ, Measurements. Marine Pollution Bulletin. 161(Part B), 111766. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.marpolbul.2020.111766.

[26] Yi, Y., Zhang, H.-R., Jin, J., 2019. Trends of Sea Surface Temperature and Sea Surface Temperature Fronts in the South China Sea during 2003–2017. Acta Oceanologica Sinica. 38(4), 106–115. DOI : 10.1007/s13131-019-1416-4

[27] Kyung-Ae, P., Eun-Young, L., Chang, E., et al., 2014. Spatial and Temporal Variability of Sea Surface Temperature and Warming Trends in the Yellow Sea. Journal of Marine Systems. 143, 24–38. DOI: 10.1016/j.jmarsys.2014.10.013

[28] Sherwood, S.C., Huber, M., 2010. An Adaptability Limit to Climate Change due to Heat Stress. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America. 107(21), 9552–9555.

[29] Feingold, J.S., 2011. El Niño, La Niña, and ENSO. In: Hopley, D. (Eds.). Encyclopedia of Modern Coral Reefs. Encyclopedia of Earth Sciences Series. Springer: Dordrecht, The Netherlands. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-90-481-2639-2_74.

[30] Hirahara, S., Ishii, M., Fukuda, Y., 2014. Centennial-scale Sea Surface Temperature Analysis and Its Uncertainty. Journal of Climate. 27, 57–75.

[31] Kurihara, Y., Sakurai, T., Kuragano, T., 2006. Global Daily Sea Surface Temperature Analysis Using Data from Satellite Microwave Radiometer, Satellite Infrared Radiometer and In-situ Observations. Weather Service Bulletin. 73, s1–s18.

[32] Osinowo, A.A., 2019. Combined Exploitation of Onshore Wind-Wave Energy in the Niger Delta Coasts Based on a 37-year Hindcast Information. Energy Management Research Journal. 2(1), 1–20.

[33] Sterling, E., Hurley, M., 2005. Conserving Biodiversity in Vietnam: Applying Biogeography to Conservation Research. In Proceedings of the California Academy of Sciences; San Francisco State University, San Francisco, CA, USA, 17–18 June 2003; Volume 56, Supplement I(1), pp. 9–11.

[34] Minh, N.N., Patrick, M., Florent, L., et al., 2014. Tidal characteristics of the gulf of Tonkin, Continental Shelf Research. 91, 37–56. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.csr.2014.08.003.

[35] Fan, P.-F., 1981. Geology and Bouguer Gravity Anomalies of the Gulf of Tonkin and Vicinity. The South China Sea. 6(11), 1099–1111. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/0360-5442(81)90028-1

[36] IOC-UNESCO UNEP, 2016. Large Marine Ecosystems: Status and Trends. United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), Nairobi. TWAP Volume 4 Technical report 6. 1 January 2016.

[37] Fox-Kemper, B., Hewitt, H.T., Xiao, C., et al., 2021. Ocean, Cryosphere and Sea Level Change. In: Masson-Delmotte, V., Zhai, P., Pirani, A., et al., (Eds.). Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press: Cambridge, UK; New York, NY, USA. pp. 1211–1362. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009157896.011

Downloads

How to Cite

Yichun Lin, & Adekunle Osinowo. (2025). Long Term Variability of Extreme Sea Surface Temperature in the Gulf of Tonkin, China. Journal of Environmental & Earth Sciences, 7(1), 274–291. https://doi.org/10.30564/jees.v7i1.7268

Issue

Vol. 7 , Iss. 1 (January 2025): In Progress

Article Type

Article

License

Copyright © 2025 Yichun Lin, Osinowo Adekunle

Creative Commons License

This is an open access article under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International (CC BY-NC 4.0) License.

Crossref
Scopus
Google Scholar
Europe PMC