Mapping Meteorological Drought Periods in South Sulawesi Using the Standardized Precipitation Index with the Power Law Process Model

Authors

  • Nurtiti Sunusi

    Department of Statistics, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Hasanuddin University, Makassar 90245, Indonesia
  • Nur Hikmah Auliana

    Department of Statistics, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Hasanuddin University, Makassar 90245, Indonesia
  • Andi Kresna Jaya

    Department of Statistics, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Hasanuddin University, Makassar 90245, Indonesia
  • Siswanto

    Department of Statistics, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Hasanuddin University, Makassar 90245, Indonesia
  • Erna Tri Herdiani

    Department of Statistics, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Hasanuddin University, Makassar 90245, Indonesia

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.30564/jees.v7i1.7277
Received: 12 September 2024 | Revised: 16 October 2024 | Accepted: 22 October 2024 | Published Online: 26 December 2024

Abstract

A drought is when reduced rainfall leads to a water crisis, impacting daily life. Over recent decades, droughts have affected various regions, including South Sulawesi, Indonesia. This study aims to map the probability of meteorological drought months using the 1-month Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) in South Sulawesi. Based on SPI, meteorological drought characteristics are inversely proportional to drought event intensity, which can be modeled using a Non-Homogeneous Poisson Process, specifically the Power Law Process. The estimation method employs Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE), where drought event intensities are treated as random variables over a set time interval. Future drought months are estimated using the cumulative Power Law Process function, with the β and γ parameters more significant than 0. The probability of drought months is determined using the Non-Homogeneous Poisson Process, which models event occurrence over time, considering varying intensities. The results indicate that, of the 24 districts/cities in South Sulawesi, 14 experienced meteorological drought based on the SPI and Power Law Process model. The estimated number of months of drought occurrence in the next 12 months is one month of drought with an occurrence probability value of 0.37 occurring in November in the Selayar, Bulukumba, Bantaeng, Jeneponto, Takalar and Gowa areas; in October in the Sinjai, Barru, Bone, Soppeng, Pinrang and Pare-pare areas; as well as in December in the Maros and Makassar areas.

Keywords:

Meteorological Drought; Non-Homogeneous Poisson Process; Point Process; Power Law Process; Standardized Precipitation Index; South Sulawesi-Indonesia

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How to Cite

Sunusi, N., Auliana, N. H., Jaya, A. K., Siswanto, & Herdiani, E. T. (2025). Mapping Meteorological Drought Periods in South Sulawesi Using the Standardized Precipitation Index with the Power Law Process Model. Journal of Environmental & Earth Sciences, 7(1), 438–456. https://doi.org/10.30564/jees.v7i1.7277

Issue

Vol. 7 , Iss. 1 (January 2025)

Article Type

Article

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Copyright © 2025 Nurtiti Sunusi, Nur Hikmah Auliana, Andi Kresna Jaya, Siswanto, Erna Tri Herdiani

Creative Commons License

This is an open access article under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International (CC BY-NC 4.0) License.

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