Hydrological Extremes under Climate Change: Advances in Predictive Modeling and Risk Assessment

Authors

  • Lei Gao

    POWERCHINA Northwest Engineering Corporation Limited/Kunlun Talent in Qinghai Province; Xi'an 710000, China
  • Min'kuo Cai

    The Second Geological and Mineral Exploration Institute of Gansu Provincial Bureau of Geology and Mineral Exploration and Development, Lanzhou 730020, China
  • Changjiang Cai

    POWERCHINA Northwest Engineering Corporation Limited, Xi'an 710100, China
  • Fachun She

    Haixi Guotou Green Energy Co., Ltd., Delingha 817000, China
  • Zhexu Li

    Huadian (Haixi) New Energy Co., Ltd., Delingha 817000, China

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.30564/jees.v8i2.12990
Received: 12 November 2025 | Revised: 26 January 2026 | Accepted: 29 January 2026 | Published Online: 27 February 2026

Abstract

Hydrological extremes, such as floods, droughts, and compound events, are extremely dangerous to human societies, ecosystems, and infrastructures, whose frequency and severity are affected by climate change more and more. Effective disaster preparedness, water resource management, and climate adaptation have to do with accurate prediction and extensive risk assessment. This review sums up recent progress in predictive modeling and risk assessment systems in the framework of hydrological extremes in the changing climatic conditions. Statistical and empirical techniques, including extreme value theory and nonstationary frequency analysis, give probabilistic information using historic records, whereas process-based models give an understanding of physical hydrological processes at different climate and land-use conditions. New information-based and hybrid methods that use machine learning and high-resolution data take advantage of the complexity and nonlinearities and enhance the predictive power. Hazard, exposure, vulnerability, and adaptive capacity risk assessment models allow predictive output to be translated into actionable decision support, with socio-economic aspects and analysis of the scenario. Case studies of various regions across the globe show the use of these techniques to address floods, droughts, and compound events, with success and current problems. The review also addresses current trends such as compound hazard, multi-hazard integration, AI-enabled modelling, and cross-sectoral decision support, and outlines research priorities of improving predictive capability and resilience. This review will inform researchers, policymakers, and practitioners by offering a synthesis of all the effects of the hydrological extremes in climate change to formulate sound strategies for alleviating these effects.

Keywords:

Hydrological Extremes; Climate Change; Predictive Modeling; Risk Assessment; Compound Events

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How to Cite

Gao, L., Cai, M., Cai, C., She, F., & Li, Z. (2026). Hydrological Extremes under Climate Change: Advances in Predictive Modeling and Risk Assessment. Journal of Environmental & Earth Sciences, 8(2), 340–360. https://doi.org/10.30564/jees.v8i2.12990

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Vol. 8 , Iss. 2 (February 2026)

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Review

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Copyright © 2026 Min'kuo Cai, Lei Gao, Changjiang Cai, Fachun She, Zhexu Li

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This is an open access article under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International (CC BY-NC 4.0) License.

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