![](https://journals.bilpubgroup.com/public/site/images/shuangyu/alpsp.jpg)
Most of the Long-Term Solar Radiation Forcing on the Climate Is Due to the Strong Feedback Mechanisms
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.30564/jees.v6i3.6502Abstract
The main interactions of the Total Solar Irradiance (TSI) variations with the climatic system are considered. This research introduced new physically based indexes for 11-year cycles: the integral relative energetic power of the cycles solar activity (SA) and TSI, as well as the cycle-weighted mean value both of the TSI and sunspot number. The observed cycle-average TSI value in cycles XXII–XXIV has decreased by more than 0.5 W/m2, indicating its quasi-bicentennial decline. The onset of the Maunder-type Grand minimum phase of the SA and TSI of the quasi-bicentennial cycle (BCC) is expected in the 27th or 28th 11-year cycle in 2042 or 2053. The Earth's thermal inertia will cause a temperature reduction of around 0.25 K due to the deficit in TSI during the declining phase of the bicentennial cycle due to its negative impact on Earth's energy imbalance. As a result, the Bond's albedo will increase, and the abundance of atmospheric water vapor and carbon dioxide will decrease as a response to a direct solar forcing. BCC feedback mechanisms will also continue operating during both its minimum and maximum phases. The feedback mechanisms will continue further in short periods (about 30 years) at the beginning of BCC's growth and decline phases. These long-term self-reinforcing feedback effects will act as a response to the TSI, forcing in such a way as to trigger a strong amplification of the initial direct input to the corresponding temperature changes. They will lead to a significant increasing cooling in 2070 or 2080. Variations of the galactic cosmic rays and cloud cover practically do not affect the climate. The quasi-bicentennial cyclicity of the TSI also provides simultaneous climate variations on all Solar system planets.
Keywords:
Solar cycles' new index; Climate; Feedbacks; Grand solar minimum; Earth's energy imbalance; Cloud cover; Cosmic rays; CoolingReferences
[1] Herschel, W., 1801. XIII. Observations tending to investigate the nature of the sun, in order to find the causes or symptoms of its variable emission of light and heat; with remarks on the use that may possibly be drawn from solar observations. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London. (91), 265–318. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1098/rstl.1801.0015
[2] Eddy, J.A., 1976. The Maunder Minimum. Science. 192(4245), 1189–1202. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1126/science.192.4245.1189
[3] Borisenkov, E.P., et al., 1988. Climate Oscillations of the Last Millennium (Kolebaniya Klimata za Poslednee Tisyaceletie, in Russian). Gidrometeoizdat: Russia. pp. 275–318.
[4] Abdussamatov, H.I., 2013. Grand minimum of the total solar irradiance leads to the Little Ice Age. Journal of Geology & Geosciences. 2(2), 113. DOI: https://doi.org/10.4172/2329-6755.1000113
[5] Abdussamatov, H.I., 2018. Comparative analysis of errors in monitoring the Earth's global energy budget by the Lunar Observatory and orbiters. Izvestiya, Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics. 54(9), 1341–1352. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1134/s0001433818090013
[6] Abdussamatov, H.I., 2005. Long-term variations of the integral radiation flux and possible temperature changes in the Solar core. Kinematics and Physics of Celestial Bodies. 21(6), 328–332.
[7] Abdusamatov, K.I., 2007. Optimal prediction of the peak of the next 11-year activity cycle and of the peaks of several succeeding cycles on the basis of long-term variations in the solar radius or solar constant. Kinematics and Physics of Celestial Bodies. 23(3), 97–100. DOI: https://doi.org/10.3103/s0884591307030026
[8] Abdusamatov, K.I., 2012. Bicentennial decrease of the solar constant leads to the Earth's unbalanced heat budget and deep climate cooling. Kinematics and Physics of Celestial Bodies. 28(2), 62–68. DOI: https://doi.org/10.3103/s088459131202002x
[9] Abdussamatov, H., 2015. Current long-term negative average annual energy balance of the earth leads to the new little ice age. Thermal Science. 19, 279–288. DOI: https://doi.org/10.2298/tsci140902018a
[10] Milankovitch, M., 1998. Canon of Insolation and the Ice Age Problem (in English), 1st ed. Agency for Textbooks: Serbia. pp. 636.
[11] Petit, J.R., Jouzel, J., Raynaud, D., et al., 1999. Climate and atmospheric history of the past 420,000 years from the Vostok ice core, Antarctica. Nature. 399(6735), 429–436. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/20859
[12] Lüthi, D., Le Floch, M., Bereiter, B., et al., 2008. High-resolution carbon dioxide concentration record 650,000–800,000 years before present. Nature. 453(7193), 379–382. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/nature06949
[13] Croll, J., 1875. Climate and Time in Their Geological Relations: a theory of secular changes of the Earth's climate. Edward Stanford: UK. pp. 577.
[14] Abdussamatov, H.I., Lapovok, Y.V., Khankov, S.I., 2016. Planetary temperature calculations under Milankovitch cycles. Journal International Academy of Refrigeration. 15(3), 82–86. DOI: https://doi.org/10.21047/1606-4313-2016-15-3-82-86
[15] Abdussamatov, H.I., Lapovok, Y.V., Khankov, S.I., 2017. Decrease in temperatures of the ocean and the atmosphere and approach of big Ice Age in the conditions of establishment of cycles of Milankovich. Journal International Academy of Refrigeration. 16(3), 62–66. DOI: https://doi.org/10.21047/1606-4313-2017-16-3-62-66
[16] Fleitmann, D., Burns, S.J., Mudelsee, M., et al., 2003. Holocene forcing of the Indian monsoon recorded in a stalagmite from southern Oman. Science. 300(5626), 1737–1739. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1083130
[17] Hu, F.S., Kaufman, D., Yoneji, S., et al., 2003. Cyclic variation and solar forcing of Holocene climate in the Alaskan subarctic. Science. 301(5641), 1890–1893. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1088568
[18] Scafetta, N., 2023. Empirical assessment of the role of the Sun in climate change using balanced multi-proxy solar records. Geoscience Frontiers. 14(6), 101650. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gsf.2023.101650
[19] Soon, W., Connolly, R., Connolly, M., et al., 2023. The detection and attribution of northern hemisphere land surface warming (1850–2018) in terms of human and natural factors: Challenges of inadequate data. Climate. 11(9), 179. DOI: https://doi.org/10.3390/cli11090179
[20] Connolly, R., Soon, W., Connolly, M., et al., 2021. How much has the Sun influenced Northern Hemisphere temperature trends? An ongoing debate. Research in Astronomy and Astrophysics. 21(6), 131. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1088/1674-4527/21/6/131
[21] Schmutz, W.K., 2021. Changes in the Total Solar Irradiance and climatic effects. Journal of Space Weather and Space Climate. 11, 40. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1051/swsc/2021016
[22] Bond, G., Kromer, B., Beer, J., et al., 2001. Persistent solar influence on North Atlantic climate during the Holocene. Science. 294(5549), 2130–2136. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1065680
[23] Solanki, S.K., Usoskin, I.G., Kromer, B., et al., 2004. Unusual activity of the Sun during recent decades compared to the previous 11,000 years. Nature. 431(7012), 1084–1087. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/nature02995
[24] Wolfgang Finsterle, Jean-Philippe Montillet, 2024. Solar Constant: Construction of a Composite Total Solar Irradiance (TSI) Time-Series from 1978 to the Present [cited 2024 Apr 30]. Available from: https://www.pmodwrc.ch/en/research-development/solar-physics/tsi-composite/
[25] Frohlich, C., 2013. Solar Constant [cited 2013 Dec 31]. Available from: https://www.pmodwrc.ch/pmod.php?topic=tsi/composite/SolarConstant
[26] Dudok de Wit, T., Kopp, G., Fröhlich, C., et al., 2017. Methodology to create a new total solar irradiance record: Making a composite out of multiple data records. Geophysical Research Letters. 44(3), 1196–1203. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1002/2016gl071866
[27] Finsterle, W., Montillet, J., Schmutz, W., et al., 2021. The total solar irradiance during the recent solar minimum period measured by SOHO/VIRGO. Scientific Reports. 11(1), 7835. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-87108-y
[28] Sveshnikov, M.L., 2002. Solar-radius variations from transits of Mercury across the solar disk. Astronomy Letters. 28(2), 115–120. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1134/1.1448847
[29] Mazzarella, A., Scafetta, N., 2018. The Little Ice Age was 1.0–1.5 °C cooler than current warm period according to LOD and NAO. Climate Dynamics. 51(9–10), 3957–3968. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-018-4122-6
[30] Douglass, D.H., Clader, B.D., 2002. Climate sensitivity of the Earth to solar irradiance. Geophysical Research Letters. 29(16). DOI: https://doi.org/10.1029/2002gl015345
[31] Miyahara, H., Kataoka, R., Mikami, T., et al., 2018. Solar rotational cycle in lightning activity in Japan during the 18–19th centuries. Annales Geophysicae. 36(2), 633–640. DOI: https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-36-633-2018
[32] Scafetta, N., Willson, R.C., 2019. Comparison of decadal trends among total solar irradiance composites of satellite observations. Advances in Astronomy. 2019(1), 1214896. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1155/2019/1214896
[33] Trimble, V., Aschwanden, M.J., Hansen, C.J., 2007. Astrophysics in 2006. Space Science Reviews. 132(1), 1–182. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11214-007-9224-0
[34] Abdussamatov, H.I., 2016. The new Little Ice Age has started. In: Easterbrook, D.J. (eds). Evidence-Based Climate Science, 2nd ed. Elsevier: UK. pp. 307–328. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/b978-0-12-804588-6.00017-3
[35] Egorova, T., Schmutz, W., Rozanov, E., et al., 2018. Revised historical solar irradiance forcing. Astronomy & Astrophysics. 615, A85. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1051/0004-6361/201731199
[36] Penza, V., Berrilli, F., Bertello, L., et al., 2022. Total solar irradiance during the last five centuries. The Astrophysical Journal. 937(2), 84. DOI: https://doi.org/10.3847/1538-4357/ac8a4b
[37] Yeo, K.L., Solanki, S.K., Krivova, N.A., et al., 2020. The dimmest state of the Sun. Geophysical Research Letters. 47(19). DOI: https://doi.org/10.1029/2020gl090243
[38] Judge, P.G., Egeland, R., Henry, G.W., 2020. Sun-like stars shed light on solar climate forcing. The Astrophysical Journal. 891(1), 96. DOI: https://doi.org/10.3847/1538-4357/ab72a9
[39] Abdussamatov, H.I., 2006. The time of the end of the current solar cycle and the relationship between duration of 11-year cycles and secular cycle phase. Kinematics and Physics of Celestial Bodies. 22(3), 141–143.
[40] Abdussamatov, H.I., 2022. On the incorrectness of the Gnevyshev-Ohl rule combining even-odd 11-year cycles of the solar activity in physical pairs and on the maxima of XXV and XXVI cycles. Astronomy Reports. 66(8), 701–709. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1134/s1063772922090013
[41] Waldmeier, M., 1935. Neue eigenschaften der sonnenfleckenkurve. Astronomische Mitteilungen der Eidgenössischen Sternwarte Zürich. 14, 105–136.
[42] Data of World Data Center—Sunspot Index and Long-term Solar Observations, 2023. Royal Observatory of Belgium, Brussels [cited 2023 Apr 30]. Available from: https://www.sidc.be/silso/datafiles
[43] Gnevyshev, M.N., Ohl, A.I., 1948. About the 22-year cycle of solar activity Astronomicheskii Zhurnal. 25, 18–20. (in Russian).
[44] Abdussamatov, H.I., 2007. Decrease of the solar radiation flux and drastic fall of the global temperature on the Earth in the middle of the XXI century. Izvestiya Krymskoi Astrofizicheskoi Observatorii. 103(4), 292–298.
[45] Friis-Christensen, E., Lassen, K., 1991. Length of the solar cycle: an indicator of solar activity closely associated with climate. Science. 254(5032), 698–700. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1126/science.254.5032.698
[46] Abdussamatov, H.I., 2015. Power of the energy of 11-year solar cycle and its dependence on solar cycle length. Kinematics and Physics of Celestial Bodies. 31(4), 193–196. DOI: https://doi.org/10.3103/s0884591315040029
[47] Abdussamatov, H.I., Bogoyavlenskii, A.I., Khankov, S.I., et al., 2010. Modeling of the Earth's planetary heat balance with electrical circuit analogy. Journal of Electromagnetic Analysis and Applications. 2(3), 133–138. DOI: https://doi.org/10.4236/jemaa.2010.23020
[48] Abdussamatov, H.I., Khankov, S.I., Lapovok, Y.V., (editors), 2011. Factors defining the thermal inertia characteristics of the system Earth-atmosphere (in Russian). Proceedings of the All-Russian Annual Conference on Solar and Solar-Terrestrial Physics; 2011 Oct 3–7; St. Petersburg. p. 307–310.
[49] Fischer, H., Wahlen, M., Smith, J., et al., 1999. Ice core records of atmospheric CO2 around the last three glacial terminations. Science. 283(5408), 1712–1714. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1126/science.283.5408.1712
[50] Pedro, J.B., Rasmussen, S.O., van Ommen, T.D., 2012. Tightened constraints on the time-lag between Antarctic temperature and CO2 during the last deglaciation. Climate of the Past. 8(4), 1213–1221.DOI: https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-1213-2012
[51] Humlum, O., Stordahl, K., Solheim, J.E., 2013. The phase relation between atmospheric carbon dioxide and global temperature. Global and Planetary Change. 100, 51–69. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2012.08.008
[52] Nigmatulin, R.I., 2010. The ocean: Climate, resources, and natural disasters. Herald of the Russian Academy of Sciences. 80(4), 338–349. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1134/s1019331610040040
[53] Rasmussen, C., 2021. Emission reductions from pandemic had unexpected effects on atmosphere [cited 2021 Nov 9]. Available from: https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/emission-reductions-from-pandemic-had-unexpected-effects-on-atmosphere
[54] Abdussamatov H.I., 2018. Cosmic rays and clouds variations effect on the climate is insignificantly. Applied Physics Research. 10(4), 81–86. DOI: https://doi.org/10.5539/APR.V10N4P81
[55] Abdussamatov, H.I., 2019. Earth's climate does not depend on variations in cosmic rays and cloud coverage. Geomagnetism and Aeronomy. 59(7), 935–941. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1134/s0016793219070028
[56] Odyssey studies changing weather and climate on Mars. The changing south polar cap of Mars: 1999–2005 [cited 2005 Jul 13]. Available from: http://www.msss.com/mars_images/moc/2005/07/13/
[57] Ravilious, K., 2007. Mars Melt Hints at Solar, Not Human, Cause for Warming, Scientist Says National Geographic News [cited 2007 Feb 28]. Available from: http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2007/02/070228-mars-warming.html
[58] Mars: son atmosphère se réchauffe aussi! [cited 2007 Oct 15]. Available from: https://www.futura-sciences.com/sciences/actualites/univers-mars-son-atmosphere-rechauffe-aussi-10658/
[59] Fenton, L.K., Geissler, P.E., Haberle, R.M., 2007. Global warming and climate forcing by recent albedo changes on Mars. Nature. 446(7136), 646–649. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/nature05718
[60] Malin., 2010. An overview of the 1985-2006 Mars Orbiter Camera science investigation. The Mars Journal. 5, 1–60. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1555/mars.2010.0001
[61] Johnston, W.R., 2007. Global warming on other planets? [cited 2007 Oct 15]. Available from: https://www.johnstonsarchive.net/environment/warmingplanets.html
[62] Hammel, H.B., Lockwood, G.W., 2007. Suggestive correlations between the brightness of Neptune, solar variability, and Earth's temperature. Geophysical Research Letters. 34(8). DOI: https://doi.org/10.1029/2006gl028764
[63] Morton. O., 2007. Hot times in the Solar System. Nature. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/news070402-7
[64] Solomon, L., 2007. Look to Mars for the truth on global warming [cited 2007 Jan 26]. Available from: https://ep.probeinternational.org/2007/01/26/deniers-part-ix-look-mars-truth-global-warming/
[65] Elliot, J.L., Hammel, H.B., Wasserman, L.H., et al., 1998. Global warming on Triton. Nature. 393(6687), 765–767. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/31651
[66] Marcus, P., Asay-Davis, X., Shetty, S., et al., 2006. Velocities and temperatures of Jupiter's great red spot and the new red oval and their implications for global climate change [cited 2006 Sep 30]. Available from: https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2006DPS....38.3903M/abstract
[67] Mörner, N.A., 2015. The approaching new Grand solar minimum and Little Ice Age climate conditions. Natural Science. 7(11), 510–518. DOI: https://doi.org/10.4236/ns.2015.711052
[68] Sellitto, P., Podglajen, A., Belhadji, R., et al. 2022. The unexpected radiative impact of the Hunga Tonga eruption of 15th January 2022. Communications Earth & Environment. 3(1). DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-022-00618-z
Downloads
How to Cite
Issue
Article Type
License
Copyright © 2024 Author(s)
![Creative Commons License](http://i.creativecommons.org/l/by-nc/4.0/88x31.png)
This is an open access article under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International (CC BY-NC 4.0) License.