Literature Review on Stochastic Modeling of Wet and Dry Spells

Abstract

With increasing concerns about climate change and its profound implications for water resources, stochastic modeling of wet and dry spells has emerged as a critical domain within hydrology and climatology, providing insight into the temporal patterns of precipitation and drought occurrences. This review of the literature synthesizes recent advances in the modeling of wet and dry spells using stochastic methods, focusing on publications from 2000 to 2024. The review examines various modeling approaches, including Markov chain models, mixed probability models, non-homogeneous models, and time series approaches. Key findings indicate that Markov chain models are effective in simulating the sequential occurrence of wet and dry spells, with higher-order variants addressing issues of overdispersion. Mixed probability models excel at representing heterogeneity and extremes in precipitation data, especially in regions with distinct wet and dry seasons. Non-homogeneous models are valuable for understanding the temporal dynamics and irregularities of dry spells, revealing significant shifts in their frequency and duration over time. These can be complemented by time-series methods to highlight long-term trends and seasonal variations. The review underscores the importance of regional specificity in modeling approaches to accurately capture local climatic and geographical variability. Recommendations for future research include the integration of hybrid models that combine the strengths of various approaches to improve predictive precision, focusing on the impacts of climate change, and conducting cross-regional comparisons to generalize findings and enhance the robustness of the models.