Religious Events and Interpretation of Fluctuations in Stock Markets Evidence from Price Anomalies during the Arbaeen Occasion in the Iraq Stock Exchange

Authors

  • Mohammed Abdulameer AL-Yasi

    College of Administration & Economic, University of Kerbala, P.O.Box 1125, Kerbala, Iraq

  • Haider Abbas Al-Janabi

    College of Administration & Economic, University of Kerbala, P.O.Box 1125, Kerbala, Iraq

  • Ali Abdzaid Jebur Al-nafeai

    Musayyib Technical Institute, Al-Furat Al-Awsat Technical University, Kufa, 54003, Iraq

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.30564/jsbe.v6i4.6003
Received: 8 October 2023 | Received in revised form: 19 November 2023 | Accepted: 22 November 2023 | Published: 30 November 2023

Abstract

Many studies and research have shown close relationships between seasonal phenomena that are related to religious beliefs and anomalies in returns and stock prices, which paved the way for exploring other anomaly days and wider time series that occur in the second month of the Hijri year, which is the month of Safar in the holy city of Karbala in Iraq, as it will represent an experimental addition to the financial scientific path and aid in providing evidence of those fluctuations and what they produce in influencing prices and returns in the stock market. The study, which conducted an analysis of stock prices in the banking sector and the hotel sector in the market for the period from 2013-2022, shows a low estimate of the price of one share compared to the volume of billion shares, as well as a gradual decline in share prices for the two sectors, the study sample, and the share prices in the month of Safar, which witnessed a remarkable fluctuation in the general average of the periods. The three are divided into ten days each period, at the beginning of the month, during the visit, and at the end of the month, with a slight decrease in the first and middle periods and then a rise again at the end of the month. This supports the general recession that affects various sectors, including the economic and financial ones, and constitutes an opportunity for the investment decision-maker to benefit from these price fluctuations.

Keywords:

Behavioral finance, Price abnormalities, Stock market, Seasonal distortions, The effect of the Arbaeen Occasion

References

[1] Schwert, G.W., 2003. Anomalies and market efficiency. Handbook of the economics of finance. Elsevier: Amsterdam. pp. 939-974.

[2] Baker, H.K., Nofsinger, J.R., 2010. Behavioral finance: An overview. Behavioral finance: Investors, corporations, and markets. John Wiley & Sons, Inc.: Hoboken, NJ. pp. 1-21. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1002/9781118258415

[3] Bergman, S., Kubler, L., Martinsson, O., 2001. Description of regional geological and geophysical maps of Northern Norrbotten County (East of the Caledonian Orogen). Geological Survay of Sweden. 56, 110.

[4] Ţilică, E.V., Oprea, D., 2014. Seasonality in the Romanian stock market: The-day-of-the-week effect. Procedia Economics and Finance. 15, 704-710. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/S2212-5671(14)00543-7

[5] Al-Hajieh, H., Redhead, K., Rodgers, T., 2011. Investor sentiment and calendar anomaly effects: A case study of the impact of Ramadan on Islamic Middle Eastern markets. Research in International Business and Finance. 25(3), 345-356. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ribaf.2011.03.004

[6] Al-Ississ, M., 2010. The Impact of Religious Experience on Financial Markets [Internet]. Available from: https://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/document?repid=rep1&type=pdf&doi=7a60ec5a2bff9fe857f23e951f761f5cd9288360

[7] Al-Khazali, O., 2014. Revisiting fast profit investor sentiment and stock returns during Ramadan. International Review of Financial Analysis. 33, 158-170. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.irfa.2014.02.003

[8] Al-Khazali, O., Bouri, E., Roubaud, D., et al., 2017. The impact of religious practice on stock returns and volatility. International Review of Financial Analysis. 52, 172-189. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.irfa.2017.04.009

[9] Białkowski, J., Etebari, A., Wisniewski, T.P., 2012. Fast profits: Investor sentiment and stock returns during Ramadan. Journal of Banking & Finance. 36(3), 835-845. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2011.09.014

[10] Halari, A., Helliar, C., Power, D.M., et al., 2019. Taking advantage of Ramadan and January in Muslim countries. The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance. 74, 85-96. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.qref.2018.05.018

[11] Oğuzsoy, C.B., Güven, S., 2004. Holy days effect on Istanbul stock exchange. Journal of Emerging Market Finance. 3(1), 63-75. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1177/097265270400300104

[12] Seyyed, F.J., Abraham, A., Al-Hajji, M., 2005. Seasonality in stock returns and volatility: The Ramadan effect. Research in International Business and Finance. 19(3), 374-383. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ribaf.2004.12.010

[13] Wasiuzzaman, S., 2017. Religious anomalies in Islamic stock markets: The Hajj effect in Saudi Arabia. Journal of Asset Management. 18, 157-162. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1057/s41260-016-0028-1

[14] Aslam, F., Hunjra, A.I., Tayachi, T., et al., 2022. Calendar anomalies in Islamic frontier markets. SAGE Open. 12(2). DOI: https://doi.org/10.1177/21582440221097

[15] Alawadhi, A., 2016. Essays on religious beliefs an stock market outcomes [Ph.D. thesis]. Melbourne: RMIT University.

[16] Al-Awadhi, A., Bash, A., Jamaani, F., 2021. Ramadan effect: A structural time-series test. International Journal of Financial Research. 12(1), 260-269. DOI: https://doi.org/10.5430/ijfr.v12n1p260

[17] Dery, W.P., Sri, H., Muslimin, M.,(2021. Ramadan effect and volatility risk by garch model: evidence in Indonesia stock market. Jurnal Bisnis Dan Manajemen. 17(2), 14-25.

Downloads

How to Cite

AL-Yasi, M. A., Al-Janabi, H. A., & Al-nafeai, A. A. J. (2023). Religious Events and Interpretation of Fluctuations in Stock Markets Evidence from Price Anomalies during the Arbaeen Occasion in the Iraq Stock Exchange. Journal of Sustainable Business and Economics, 6(4), 39–49. https://doi.org/10.30564/jsbe.v6i4.6003

Issue

Article Type

Article