Investigating the Impact of Meteorological Parameters on PM2.5 Concentrations and Air Quality Index Using Regression Analysis

Authors

  • Neelam Tanwar

    Department of Environmental Monitoring and Exposure Assessment (Air), ICMR-National Institute for Research in Environmental Health, Bhopal 462030, India
  • Satish Bhagwatrao Aher

    Department of Environmental Monitoring and Exposure Assessment (Air), ICMR-National Institute for Research in Environmental Health, Bhopal 462030, India
  • Dharma Raj

    Department of Biostatistics and Bioinformatics, ICMR-National Institute for Research in Environmental Health, Bhopal 462030, India
  • Subroto Nandi

    Department of Environmental Monitoring and Exposure Assessment (Air), ICMR-National Institute for Research in Environmental Health, Bhopal 462030, India

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.30564/jasr.v8i4.11242
Received: 27 June 2025 | Revised:23 August 2025 | Accepted: 30 August 2025 | Published Online: 7 September 2025

Abstract

Air pollution from fine particulate matter (PM2.5) poses a serious health risk in rapidly urbanizing areas like Bhopal, India. This study investigates the influence of meteorological factors temperature, humidity, rainfall, and wind speed on PM2.5 concentrations and the Air Quality Index (AQI) from January 2022 to December 2023. PM2.5 levels ranged from 1.0 µg/m³ to 938.0 µg/m³, with an average AQI of 119, indicating moderate pollution. Correlation analysis indicated that higher temperatures were sometimes associated with elevated PM2.5 episodes due to enhanced photochemical activity, but regression analysis revealed an overall negative association, suggesting stronger atmospheric dispersion at higher temperatures. Wind speed consistently reduced PM2.5, while humidity and rainfall supported pollutant removal. Regression models explained 18.1% of PM2.5 and 29.7% of AQI variability. Ridge regression reinforced the dominant influence of temperature and humidity. AQI was modelled alongside PM2.5 to align with its practical role in public communication and policy, despite being largely driven by PM2.5. These findings highlight the role of meteorological conditions in shaping urban air quality and emphasize the need for targeted interventions during stagnant, high-pressure episodes. By focusing on Bhopal, this study contributes valuable city-specific knowledge to the broader discourse on air pollution in rapidly developing regions of India. The study reinforces the need to incorporate meteorological forecasting into urban air quality management strategies.

Keywords:

PM2.5; Air Quality Index (AQI); Meteorological Parameters; Regression Analysis; Urban Air Pollution

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How to Cite

Tanwar, N., Aher, S. B., Raj, D., & Nandi, S. (2025). Investigating the Impact of Meteorological Parameters on PM2.5 Concentrations and Air Quality Index Using Regression Analysis. Journal of Atmospheric Science Research, 8(4), 10–18. https://doi.org/10.30564/jasr.v8i4.11242

Issue

Vol. 8 , Iss. 4 (October 2025): In Progress

Article Type

Article

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Copyright © 2025 Neelam Tanwar, Satish Bhagwatrao Aher, Dharma Raj, Subroto Nandi

Creative Commons License

This is an open access article under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International (CC BY-NC 4.0) License.

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