Changes in Future Rainfall over Southeast Asia Using the CMIP6 Multi-model Ensemble

Authors

  • Bhenjamin Jordan Ona

    Tropical Marine Science Institute, National University of Singapore, 119227, Singapore
  • Srivatsan V Raghavan

    Tropical Marine Science Institute, National University of Singapore, 119227, Singapore
  • Ngoc Son Nguyen

    Tropical Marine Science Institute, National University of Singapore, 119227, Singapore
  • Sheau Tieh Ngai

    Tropical Marine Science Institute, National University of Singapore, 119227, Singapore
  • Thanh Hung Nguyen

    Tropical Marine Science Institute, National University of Singapore, 119227, Singapore

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.30564/jasr.v7i2.6335
Received: 9 April 2024; Revised: 23 April 2024; Accepted: 26 April 2024; Published Online: 30 April 2024

Abstract

A multi-model ensemble from the new CMIP6 models was utilized to determine the future changes in precipitation over Southeast Asia (SEA; longitude: 90°E–140°E, latitude: 15°S–30°N). The changes are computed for the three (3) future time slices (2021–2040, 2041–2060, and 2081–2100) under four (4) different scenarios based on the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs): 1-2.6, 2-4.5, 3-7.0, and 5-8.5. Our results indicate that future rainfall in the SEA-averaged region could increase by about 4%, 5%, 6%, and 9% towards the end of the century relative to the present-day average (1995–2014) under SSP1-2.6, 2-4.5, 3-7.0, and 5-8.5, respectively. Among all scenarios, SSP3-7.0 widely shows remarkably dry conditions whereas SSP5-8.5 suggests extremely wet conditions on different time scales. A clear dissociation of wet and dry areas is expected in the far-term period (2081–2100). Changes in the annual cycle indicate that monsoon rainfall could experience significant increases. The study also emphasizes the importance of moisture flux convergence (MFC) in determining precipitation patterns across different seasons and regions. The results suggest that MFC plays a crucial role in the projected increase or decrease of rainfall in SEA regions. Spatial correlation of future global mean temperature (GMT) and rainfall have a high positive (negative) correlation in the north (south) latitudes. Changes in rainfall are found to be sensitive to GMT. The responses to future rainfall changes per degree Celsius of warming are at the rate of 8.9%, 6.3%, 3.6%, and 2.7% under SSP1-2.6, 2-4.5, 3-7.0, and 5-8.5, respectively.

Keywords:

CMIP6, Climate change, Moisture flux convergence, GMT, Southeast Asia, Rainfall

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How to Cite

Ona, B. J., V Raghavan, S., Nguyen, N. S., Ngai, S. T., & Nguyen, T. H. (2024). Changes in Future Rainfall over Southeast Asia Using the CMIP6 Multi-model Ensemble. Journal of Atmospheric Science Research, 7(2), 62–82. https://doi.org/10.30564/jasr.v7i2.6335

Issue

Vol. 7 , Iss. 2 (April 2024)

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Article

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Copyright © 2024 Bhenjamin Jordan Ona; Srivatsan V Raghavan, Ngoc Son Nguyen, Sheau Tieh Ngai, Thanh Hung Nguyen

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This is an open access article under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International (CC BY-NC 4.0) License.

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