Warmly Welcome Dr. Lucian Sfîcă to the Editorial Board of JASR
2024-06-20
Spatial Changes of Driving Parameters Affecting Cyclonic Activity over the North Indian Ocean from 1960 to 2020
Authors
-
Akshay Kumar Sagar
Centre for Ocean, River, Atmosphere and Land Sciences (CORAL), Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur, Kharagpur 221005, India
-
Arun Chakraborty
Centre for Ocean, River, Atmosphere and Land Sciences (CORAL), Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur, Kharagpur 221005, India
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.30564/jasr.v7i4.6926Abstract
This study undertakes a thorough analysis of the elements that influence the variability of tropical cyclones (TC) in the North Indian Ocean (NIO) from 1960 to 2020, with a specific focus on the periods before and after the monsoon season. The study utilizes historical satellite data to investigate the factors that impact the formation, strength, and trajectories of cyclones. The primary method for evaluating cyclone strength is by calculating the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE). The study observes a decreasing trend in ACE levels during 1991–2005, which started increasing just after from 2006 to 2020. The Bay of Bengal (BoB) has a more uniform distribution of ACE in comparison to the Arabian Sea (AS), with higher average values and more variability over the Main Development Region (MDR), which is the area where cyclone development occurs most frequently. Cyclones of greater intensity generally occur following the monsoon season. Examination of storm paths reveals that cyclones with greater intensity frequently hit the northeastern and southeastern coastal regions of India. The study emphasizes notable discrepancies in parameters within the MDR, which impact cyclone strength and ACE values throughout various periods.
Keywords:
ACE; Tropical Cyclone; Bay of Bengal; VariabilityReferences
[1] Singh, V.K., Roxy, M.K., 2022. A review of ocean-atmosphere interactions during tropical cyclones in the north Indian Ocean. Earth-Science Reviews. 226, 103967.
[2] Lin, I.I., Chen, C.H., Pun, I.F., et al., 2009. Warm ocean anomaly, air sea fluxes, and the rapid intensification of tropical cyclone Nargis (2008). Geophysical Research Letters. 36(3).
[3] Gray, W.M., 1968. Global view of the origin of tropical disturbances and storms. Monthly Weather Review. 96(10), 669–700.
[4] Leipper, D.F., Volgenau, D., 1972. Hurricane heat potential of the Gulf of Mexico. Journal of Physical Oceanography. 2(3), 218–224.
[5] Lead, T., 2013. National Cyclone Risk Mitigation Project (NCRMP). V22, March 2013.
[6] Geetha, B., Balachandran, S., 2014. Decadal variations in translational speed of cyclonic disturbances over North Indian Ocean. Mausam. 65(1), 115–118.
[7] Priya, P., Pattnaik, S., Trivedi, D., 2022. Characteristics of the tropical cyclones over the North Indian Ocean Basins from the long-term datasets. Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics.134(4), 65.
[8] Deshpande, M., Singh, V.K., Ganadhi, M.K., et al., 2021. Changing status of tropical cyclones over the north Indian Ocean. Climate Dynamics. 57, 3545–3567.
[9] Kabir, R., Ritchie, E.A., Stark, C., 2022. Tropical cyclone exposure in the North Indian Ocean. Atmosphere. 13(9), 1421.
[10] Pfleiderer, P., Schleussner, C.F., Geiger, T., et al., 2020. Robust predictors for seasonal Atlantic hurricane activity identified with causal effect networks. Weather and Climate Dynamics. 1(2), 313–324.
[11] Camargo, S.J., Sobel, A.H., 2005. Western North Pacific tropical cyclone intensity and ENSO. Journal of Climate. 18(15), 2996–3006.
[12] Knutson, T.R., Chung, M.V., Vecchi, G., et al., 2021. Climate Change is Probably Increasing the Intensity of Tropical Cyclones. In: Critical Issues in Climate Change Science. DOI: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.4570334
[13] Chu, J.H., Sampson, C.R., Levine, A.S., et al., 2002. The Joint Typhoon Warning Center Tropical Cyclone Best-Tracks, 1945–2000. Ref. NRL/MR/7540‐02.
[14] Gray, W.M., 1988. Forecast of Atlantic Seasonal Hurricane Activity for 1988. Report number, 26 May 1988.
[15] Klotzbach, P.J., Wood, K.M., Schreck III, C.J., et al., 2022. Trends in global tropical cyclone activity: 1990–2021. Geophysical Research Letters. 49(6), e2021GL095774.
[16] Knapp, K.R., Kruk, M.C., Levinson, D.H., et al., 2010. The international best track archive for climate stewardship (IBTrACS) unifying tropical cyclone data. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. 91(3), 363–376.
[17] Knapp, K.R., Diamond, H.J., Kossin, J.P., et al., 2018. International best track archive for climate stewardship (IBTrACS) project, version 4. NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, 10.
[18] Hersbach, H., Bell, B., Berrisford, P., et al., 2018a. ERA5 hourly data on pressure levels from 1979 to present. Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3s) Climate Data Store (Cds), 10.
[19] Hersbach, H., Bell, B., Berrisford, P., et al., 2018b. ERA5 hourly data on single levels from 1979 to present. Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) Climate Data Store (CDS).
[20] Evan, A.T., Camargo, S.J., 2011. A climatology of Arabian Sea cyclonic storms. Journal of Climate. 24, 140–158.
[21] Waple, A.M., Lawrimore, J.H., Halpert, M.S., et al., 2002. Climate assessment for 2001. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. 83(6), S1–S62.
[22] IMD, 2013. Cyclone Warning in India: Standard Operation Procedure. SOP No. 10/2013, 200p.
[23] Balaji, M., Chakraborty, A., Mandal, M., 2018. Changes in tropical cyclone activity in north Indian Ocean during satellite era (1981–2014). International Journal of Climatology. 38(6), 2819–2837.
[24] Kumar, B., Chakraborty, A., 2011. Movement of seasonal eddies and its relation with cyclonic heat potential and cyclogenesis points in the Bay of Bengal. Natural Hazards. 59, 1671–1689.
[25] Kumar, A., Chakraborty, A., Sadhukhan, B., 2023. Sequential occurrence and development of three tropical cyclones in the Bay of Bengal in 2013. Dynamics of Atmospheres and Oceans. 102, 101363.
[26] Roy Chowdhury, R., Prasanna Kumar, S., Narvekar, J., et al., 2020. Back‐to‐back occurrence of tropical cyclones in the Arabian Sea during October–November 2015: Causes and responses. Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans. 125(6), e2019JC015836.
[27] Reed, R.J., Recker, E.E., 1971. Structure and properties of synoptic-scale wave disturbances in the equatorial western Pacific. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences. 28(7), 1117–1133.
[28] Gray, W.M., 1975. Tropical cyclone genesis [PhD thesis]. Fort Collins, CO: Colorado State University. p. 234.
[29] DeMaria, M., 1996. The effect of vertical shear on tropical cyclone intensity change. Journal of Atmospheric Sciences. 53(14), 2076–2088.
[30] Zehr, R.M., 2003. Environmental vertical wind shear with Hurricane Bertha (1996). Weather and Forecasting. 18(2), 345–356.
[31] Kerns, B.W., Chen, S.S., 2013. Cloud clusters and tropical cyclogenesis: Developing and nondeveloping systems and their large-scale environment. Monthly Weather Review. 141(1), 192–210.
[32] Bracken, W.E., Bosart, L.F., 2000. The role of synoptic-scale flow during tropical cyclogenesis over the North Atlantic Ocean. Monthly weather review. 128(2), 353–376.
[33] Nolan, D.S., McGauley, M.G., 2012. Tropical cyclogenesis in wind shear: Climatological relationships and physical processes. Cyclones: Formation, Triggers, and Control. 1, 34.
[34] Reasor, P.D., Montgomery, M.T., 2001. Three-dimensional alignment and corotation of weak, TC-like vortices via linear vortex Rossby waves. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences. 58(16), 2306–2330.
[35] Mainelli, M., DeMaria, M., Shay, L.K., et al., 2008. Application of oceanic heat content estimation to operational forecasting of recent Atlantic category 5 hurricanes. Weather and Forecasting. 23(1), 3–16.
Downloads
How to Cite
Sagar, A. K., & Chakraborty, A. (2024). Spatial Changes of Driving Parameters Affecting Cyclonic Activity over the North Indian Ocean from 1960 to 2020. Journal of Atmospheric Science Research, 7(4), 13–22. https://doi.org/10.30564/jasr.v7i4.6926
Issue
Article Type
Article
License
Copyright © 2024 Akshay Kumar Sagar, Arun Chakraborty
This is an open access article under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International (CC BY-NC 4.0) License.
