Warmly Welcome Dr. Lucian Sfîcă to the Editorial Board of JASR
2024-06-20
Assessing Subseasonal Forecasts of Dry Spells and Heatwaves at the Regional Scale in Brazil
Authors
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Christopher Cunningham
Brazilian Center for Monitoring and Early Warning of Natural Disasters (Cemaden), São Jose dos Campos 12247-016, Brazil
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Nicholas Klingaman
National Centre for Atmospheric Science and Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading RG6 7BE, UK
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Liana O. Anderson
Brazilian Center for Monitoring and Early Warning of Natural Disasters (Cemaden), São Jose dos Campos 12247-016, Brazil
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Adriana Cuartas
Brazilian Center for Monitoring and Early Warning of Natural Disasters (Cemaden), São Jose dos Campos 12247-016, Brazil
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Foster Brown
Post-Graduation Department, Acre’s Federal University, Rio Branco 69915-900, Brazil
Woodwell Climate Research Center, Falmouth, MA 02541, USA
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Paulo Henrique Valadares
Post-Graduation Department, Acre’s Federal University, Rio Branco 69915-900, Brazil
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Ianca Ribeiro
Post-Graduation Department, Acre’s Federal University, Rio Branco 69915-900, Brazil
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Luciana Londe
Brazilian Center for Monitoring and Early Warning of Natural Disasters (Cemaden), São Jose dos Campos 12247-016, Brazil
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.30564/jasr.v7i4.6973Abstract
This study evaluates the performance of subseasonal forecasts for dry spells and heatwaves at a regional scale in Brazil. The forecasts’ verification was designed to provide end-users with relevant information about the forecasts’ quality. The U.K. Met Office model was assessed using a significant sample of weekly forecasts: 552 for dry spells and 240 for heatwaves. The analysis reveals that the overall performance of the forecasts is low, with a chance of detecting an event close to 0.2, indicating that only one out of five observed dry spells is accurately predicted on average. The application of quantile mapping corrections demonstrates improvements in predicting shorter dry spells (up to 5 days) and longer lead times, although the timing of these forecasts often remains inaccurate, leading to increased false alarms. A significant improvement in the forecast quality occurs when categorization by duration is disregarded. The detection chances increase to 0.5−0.7 for dry spells and 0.5 for heatwaves. The Brier Score indicates that the probabilistic forecasts issued by the model are equivalent or less skilful than climatological probabilities. Overall, the findings underscore the challenges in forecasting dry spells and heatwaves in Brazil and highlight the need for ongoing improvements in forecasting methodologies to enhance their reliability and utility for regional decision-making. This research contributes to understanding subseasonal climate forecasting and its implications for managing climate-related risks in Brazil.
Keywords:
Dry Spells; Heatwaves; Subseasonal Forecast; Early Warning System; Disaster Risk ReductionReferences
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Cunningham, C., Klingaman, N., Anderson, L. O., Cuartas, A., Brown, F., Valadares, P. H., Ribeiro, I., & Londe, L. (2024). Assessing Subseasonal Forecasts of Dry Spells and Heatwaves at the Regional Scale in Brazil. Journal of Atmospheric Science Research, 7(4), 23–39. https://doi.org/10.30564/jasr.v7i4.6973
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Copyright © 2024 Christopher Cunningham, Nicholas Klingaman, Liana O. Anderson, Adriana Cuartas, Foster Brown, Paulo Henrique Valadares, Ianca Ribeiro, Luciana Londe
This is an open access article under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International (CC BY-NC 4.0) License.
