The Hydrospheric Solar Correlation Dipole: Mapping, Interpretations, and Forecasting

Authors

  • Michael Gary Wallace

    Abeqas Hydrosciences LLC, Albuquerque, NM 87110, USA
  • Yifeng Wang

    Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, NM 87185, USA
  • Boris Faybishenko

    Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA 94720, USA

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.30564/jasr.v9i3.13249
Received: 4 March 2026 | Revised: 27 May 2026 | Accepted: 8 June 2026 | Published Online: 16 June 2026

Abstract

A meridional dipole, centered near 180° E, characterizes solar correlations to oceanic and atmospheric parameters—salinity, ocean vertical velocities, temperatures, atmospheric moisture, winds, cloud cover, geopotential heights, carbon dioxide (CO2) fluxes, and ozone (O3)—over several years of lag, with opposing correlation signs on either side of the dipole axis. Ocean correlations are stronger and more persistent than atmospheric ones; most fields intensify equatorward through the third lag-year before decaying over subsequent years. We propose, as a hypothesis for future testing, that this pattern traces global energy transport along an expanded Hadley Cell framework, with opposing correlation zones arising from latent heat exchange at the ocean surface and tropopause. Statistical significance is assessed using methods that account for serial autocorrelation (AC) and correct for multiple comparisons across variables and lags. Where correlations are highest, we propose solar activity as a useful baseline hypothesis for evaluating regional climate trends—an improvement, in these specific regions, over the null hypothesis of random states; we do not extend this claim more broadly. We further examine predictive value: reviewing an earlier cross-regression-moving-average (CRMA) case study and presenting a new forecast of five-year trailing rainfall at an Upper Colorado Basin (US) site, three years ahead. Hindcast results show the solar-regressed exercise is more skillful than the standard auto-regression-moving-average (ARMA) techniques, suggesting value in anticipating climate extremes (drought vs. fluvial) in high-correlation regions.

Keywords:

Solar Activity; Divergence of Latent Heat; Climate Forecasting; Atmospheric and Ocean Circulation; Hydrosphere

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Wallace, M. G., Wang, Y., & Faybishenko, B. (2026). The Hydrospheric Solar Correlation Dipole: Mapping, Interpretations, and Forecasting. Journal of Atmospheric Science Research, 9(3), 20–67. https://doi.org/10.30564/jasr.v9i3.13249

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Vol. 9 , Iss. 3 (July 2026): In Progress

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Copyright © 2026 Michael Gary Wallace, Yifeng Wang, Boris Faybishenko

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This is an open access article under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International (CC BY-NC 4.0) License.

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