Predicting the Potential Invasion Hotspots of Chromolaena odorata under Current and Future Climate Change Scenarios in Heterogeneous Ecological Landscapes of Mizoram, India


  • Rabishankar Sengupta

    Central National Herbarium, Botanical Survey of India, Howrah, 711103, India

  • Sudhansu Sekhar Dash

    Botanical Survey of India, CGO Complex, DF Block, Sector-1, Kolkata, 700019, India

Received: 25 August 2023 | Received in revised form: 27 September 2023 | Accepted: 7 October 2023 | Published: 11 October 2023


Recent trends in globalization, human mobility surge and global trade aggravated the expansion of alien species introduction leading to invasion by alien plants compounded by climate change. The ability to predict the spread of invasive species within the context of climate change holds significance for accurately identifying vulnerable regions and formulating strategies to contain their wide proliferation and invasion. Anthropogenic activities and recent climate change scenarios increased the risk of Chromolaena odorata invasion and habitat expansion in Mizoram. To forecast its current distribution and habitat suitability amidst climatic alterations in Mizoram, a MaxEnt-driven habitat suitability model was deployed using the default parameters. The resultant model exhibited that the current spatial range of C. odorata occupies 15.37% of geographical areas deemed suitable for varying degrees of invasion. Projections for 2050 and 2070 anticipated an expansion of suitable habitats up to 34.37% of the geographical area of Mizoram, specifically under RCP 2.6 in 2070 in comparison with its present distribution. Currently, the distributional range of C. odorata in Mizoram spans from lower (450 m) to mid elevational ranges up to 1700 meters, with limited presence at higher altitudes. However, the habitat suitability model extrapolates that climate changes will elevate the invasion risk posed by C. odorata across Mizoram, particularly in the North-Western and Central regions. The projection of further territorial expansion and an upward shift in altitudinal range in the future underscores the urgency of instating robust management measures to pre-empt the impact of C. odorata invasion. This study recommends the imperative nature of effective C. odorata management, particularly during the initial stages of invasion.


Climate change, Niche modelling, Habitat suitability, Biodiversity hotspots, Plant invasion, Maxent


[1] Simberloff, D., Martin, J.L., Genovesi, P., et al., 2013. Impacts of biological invasions: What’s what and the way forward. Trends in Ecology & Evolution. 28(1), 58-66.

[2] Vilà, M., Basnou, C., Pyšek, P., et al., 2010. How well do we understand the impacts of alien species on ecosystem services? A pan‐European, cross‐taxa assessment. Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment. 8(3), 135-144.

[3] Richardson, D.M., Rejmánek, M., 2011. Trees and shrubs as invasive alien species—a global review. Diversity and Distributions. 17(5), 788-809.

[4] Wan, J.Z., Wang, C.J., 2018. Expansion risk of invasive plants in regions of high plant diversity: A global assessment using 36 species. Ecological Informatics. 46, 8-18.

[5] Merow, C., Bois, S.T., Allen, J.M., et al., 2017. Climate change both facilitates and inhibits invasive plant ranges in New England. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. 114(16), E3276-E3284.

[6] Essl, F., Lenzner, B., Bacher, S., et al., 2020. Drivers of future alien species impacts: An expert‐based assessment. Global Change Biology. 26(9), 4880-4893.

[7] Mačić, V., Albano, P.G., Almpanidou, V., et al., 2018. Biological invasions in conservation planning: A global systematic review. Frontiers in Marine Science. 5, 178.

[8] Ahmed, D.A., Hudgins, E.J., Cuthbert, R.N., et al., 2022. Managing biological invasions: The cost of inaction. Biological Invasions. 24(7), 1927-1946.

[9] Fournier, A., Penone, C., Pennino, M.G., et al., 2019. Predicting future invaders and future invasions. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. 116(16), 7905-7910.

[10] Adhikari, D., Tiwary, R., Barik, S.K., 2015. Modelling hotspots for invasive alien plants in India. PloS One. 10(7), e0134665.

[11] Vaz, A.S., Alcaraz-Segura, D., Campos, J.C., et al., 2018. Managing plant invasions through the lens of remote sensing: A review of progress and the way forward. Science of the Total Environment. 642, 1328-1339.

[12] Tiwari, S., Mishra, S.N., Kumar, D., et al., 2022. Modelling the potential risk zone of Lantana camara invasion and response to climate change in eastern India. Ecological Processes. 11(1), 1-13.

[13] Pasiecznik, N., 2022. Chromolaena odorata (Siam weed). CABI Compendium. DOI:

[14] Muniappan, R., Reddy, G.V.P., Lai, P.Y., 2005. Distribution and biological control of Chromolaena odorata. Invasive plants: Ecological and agricultural aspects. Birkhäuser Basel: Basel. pp. 223-233.

[15] Sengupta, R., Dash, S.S., 2020. Invasion status of three non-native species from family Asteraceae in Mizoram. Nelumbo. 62(1), 27-39.

[16] Phillips, S.J., Anderson, R.P., Dudík, M., et al., 2017. Opening the black box: An open‐source release of Maxent. Ecography. 40(7), 887-893.

[17] Gobeyn, S., Mouton, A.M., Cord, A.F., et al., 2019. Evolutionary algorithms for species distribution modelling: A review in the context of machine learning. Ecological Modelling. 392, 179-195.

[18] Abolmaali, S.M.R., Tarkesh, M., Bashari, H., 2018. MaxEnt modeling for predicting suitable habitats and identifying the effects of climate change on a threatened species, Daphne mucronata, in central Iran. Ecological Informatics. 43, 116-123.

[19] India State of Forest Report 2021 [Internet]. Available from:

[20] Hijmans, R.J., Cameron, S.E., Parra, J.L., et al., 2005. Very high resolution interpolated climate surfaces for global land areas. International Journal of Climatology: A Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society. 25(15), 1965-1978.

[21] Griffies, S.M., Winton, M., Donner, L.J., et al., 2011. The GFDL CM3 coupled climate model: Characteristics of the ocean and sea ice simulations. Journal of Climate. 24(13), 3520-3544.

[22] Phillips, S.J., Miroslav, D., Schapire, R.E., 2023. Maxent Software for Modeling Species Niches and Distributions [Internet]. [cited 2023 Aug 21]. Available from:

[23] Adhikari, P., Lee, Y.H., Poudel, A., et al., 2023. Global spatial distribution of Chromolaena odorata habitat under climate change: Random forest modeling of one of the 100 worst invasive alien species. Scientific Reports. 13(1), 9745.

[24] Allouche, O., Tsoar, A., Kadmon, R., 2006. Assessing the accuracy of species distribution models: Prevalence, kappa and the true skill statistic (TSS). Journal of Applied Ecology. 43(6), 1223-1232.

[25] Thapa, S., Chitale, V., Rijal, S.J., et al., 2018. Understanding the dynamics in distribution of invasive alien plant species under predicted climate change in Western Himalaya. PloS One. 13(4), e0195752.

[26] Wang, Y.J., Müller‐Schärer, H., van Kleunen, M., et al., 2017. Invasive alien plants benefit more from clonal integration in heterogeneous environments than natives. New Phytologist. 216(4), 1072-1078.

[27] Mandal, G., Joshi, S.P., 2014. Invasion establishment and habitat suitability of Chromolaena odorata (L.) King and Robinson over time and space in the western Himalayan forests of India. Journal of Asia-Pacific Biodiversity. 7(4), 391-400.

[28] Adhikari, P., Lee, Y.H., Adhikari, P., et al., 2022. Climate change-induced invasion risk of ecosystem disturbing alien plant species: An evaluation using species distribution modeling. Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution. 10.

[29] Yulia, E., Iryadi, R., 2021. Kirinyuh (Chromolaena odorata): species distribution modeling and the potential use of fungal pathogens for its eradication. IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science. 762(1), 012023.

[30] Barik, S.K., Adhikari, D., 2012. Predicting the geographical distribution of an invasive species (Chromolaena odorata L. (King) & HE Robins) in the Indian subcontinent under climate change scenarios. Invasive alien plants: An ecological appraisal for the Indian subcontinent. CABI: Wallingford UK. pp. 77-88.

[31] Lamsal, P., Kumar, L., Aryal, A., et al., 2018. Invasive alien plant species dynamics in the Himalayan region under climate change. Ambio. 47(6), 697-710.

[32] Fandohan, A.B., Oduor, A.M., Sodé, A.I., et al., 2015. Modeling vulnerability of protected areas to invasion by Chromolaena odorata under current and future climates. Ecosystem Health and Sustainability. 1(6), 1-12.

[33] Parmesan, C., Hanley, M.E., 2015. Plants and climate change: Complexities and surprises. Annals of Botany. 116(6), 849-864.


How to Cite

Sengupta, R., & Dash, S. S. (2023). Predicting the Potential Invasion Hotspots of Chromolaena odorata under Current and Future Climate Change Scenarios in Heterogeneous Ecological Landscapes of Mizoram, India. Research in Ecology, 5(3), 19–30.


Article Type



Download data is not yet available.