Multichannel Singular Spectrum Analysis of Ozone Variability across Brazilian Biomes: Trends, Seasonality, and Forecasting

Authors

  • Amaury de Souza

    Institute of Physics, University of Mato Grosso do Sul, Campo Grande 79070-900, Brazil
  • Raquel Soares Casaes Nunes

    Saude-Decania Science Center, Federal University of Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro 21941-901, Brazil
  • José Francisco de Oliveira Junior

    Institute of Atmospheric Sciences (ICAT), University of Alagoas, Maceió 57072-900, Brazil
  • Ivana Pobocikova

    Department of Applied Mathematics, Faculty of Mechanical Engineering, University of Zilina, 010 26 Zilina, Slovakia
  • Sianny Vanessa da Silva Freitas

    Institute of Tropical Diseases, Federal University of Pará, Belém 66075-900, Brazil
  • Kelvy Rosalvo Alencar Cardoso

    Institute of Atmospheric Sciences (ICAT), University of Alagoas, Maceió 57072-900, Brazil
  • Carolyne May Mutambi Songa

    Department of Natural Science, The Catholic University of Eastern Africa, Nairobi 62157-00200, Kenya

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.30564/jasr.v8i4.12259
Received: 2 August 2025 | Revised:22 September 2025 | Accepted:30 September 2025 | Published Online: 7 October 2025

Abstract

This study examines the spatio-temporal variability of Total Column Ozone (TCO) across three major Brazilian biomes—the Cerrado, Pantanal, and Atlantic Forest—from 2005 to 2020 using Multichannel Singular Spectrum Analysis (MSSA) and its forecasting extension, the SSA–Linear Recurrent Formula (SSA–LRF). The MSSA decomposition revealed three dominant and physically consistent structures: a long-term declining trend, a synchronous seasonal cycle, and an interannual component linked to ENSO (El Niño–Southern Oscillation) variability. All biomes exhibited a persistent decrease in ozone concentrations, with the strongest declines observed in the Cerrado (−1.44 DU yr⁻¹) and Pantanal (−1.20 DU yr⁻¹). Seasonal oscillations, peaking from August to October, displayed biome-specific amplitudes ranging from 3.5 to 6.8 DU, reflecting differences in fire activity, rainfall regimes, and vegetation cover. High inter-biome correlations (r = 0.85–0.95) and zero-month lags indicate a coherent and synchronous ozone response across tropical South America. The interannual mode showed significant association with the Niño 3.4 index, confirming that ENSO-driven climate anomalies modulate ozone variability, particularly in the Pantanal. Forecasts generated with SSA–LRF demonstrated high predictive accuracy (RMSE ≈ 1.15 DU; r ≈ 0.98, p < 0.01), effectively preserving the observed trend and seasonal structure. These results highlight the robustness of the MSSA–LRF framework for diagnosing and forecasting ozone variability in data-limited tropical regions, offering a reliable, non-parametric tool to support environmental monitoring, air-quality assessments, and climate-impact studies.

Keywords:

Ozone Variability; Multichannel Singular Spectrum Analysis; SSA–LRF Forecasting; Total Column Ozone; Brazilian Biomes; ENSO; Seasonal Cycle; Trend Analysis

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How to Cite

Souza, A. de, Soares Casaes Nunes, R., Oliveira Junior, J. F. de, Pobocikova, I., Freitas, S. V. da S., Cardoso, K. R. A., & Songa, C. M. M. (2025). Multichannel Singular Spectrum Analysis of Ozone Variability across Brazilian Biomes: Trends, Seasonality, and Forecasting. Journal of Atmospheric Science Research, 8(4), 83–99. https://doi.org/10.30564/jasr.v8i4.12259

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Vol. 8 , Iss. 4 (October 2025)

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Copyright © 2025 Amaury de Souza, Raquel Soares Casaes Nunes, José Francisco de Oliveira Junior, Ivana Pobocikova, Sianny Vanessa da Silva Freitas, Kelvy Rosalvo Alencar Cardoso, Carolyne May Mutambi Songa

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