Detecting Changes in Land Degradation Trends in the Arab Gulf Countries for the Period 2000 to 2020

Authors

  • Ahmad Salih Muhaimeed

    UN-Habitat, Baghdad 10081, Iraq
  • Mohamed Sobhi Nassar

    UN-Habitat, Baghdad 10081, Iraq
  • Basem Mohamed Katalan

    Land Management Department, Arab Center for the Studies of Arid Zones and Dry Lands (ACSAD), Damascus 12573, Syria

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.30564/re.v8i2.12128
Received: 17 September 2025 | Revised: 11 November 2025 | Accepted: 25 November 2025 | Published Online: 11 March 2026

Abstract

This study aims to monitor land degradation changes in the Arab Gulf countries using time series NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) images generated from the MODIS13 dataset from 2000 to 2020. The data, collected on bi-monthly basis, were downloaded from NASA Earth Observation data with an accuracy of 250 meters, covering the whole area of the AGC, for the purpose of analyzing the distribution and spread of NDVI vegetation. A simple linear trend approach was used to examine potential land degradation trends, utilizing the Mann-Kendall statistical confidence limits for 122 selected sites during the study period. Seven classes of land degradation status were identified, representing: degraded land, land with no significant change, and improved land. The results indicated that more than 95% of AGC lands are bare land vulnerable to degradation processes. In contrast, less than 5% of the land showed improvement in land quality reflected by vegetation cover. The findings emphasized an increase in land degradation status over time, as evidenced by a decline in vegetation cover. The main causes of land degradation were climate change, characterized by rainfall decline and more moisture loss resulting from the increase in temperature and evapotranspiration, in addition to poor human activities. Land improvement occurs in some areas of the AGC, mainly in Iraq and the coastal region due to agricultural activity and geographic location.

Keywords:

Land Degradation; Desertification; Land Cover; NDVI; Arabian Gulf Countries

References

[1] Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, 2005. Ecosystems and Human Well-being: Desertification Synthesis. World Resources Institute: Washington, DC, USA. Available from: https://www.millenniumassessment.org/documents/document.355.aspx.pdf

[2] Olsson, L., Barbosa, H., Bhadwal, S., et al., 2019: Land Degradation. In Climate Change and Land: IPCC Special Report on Climate Change, Desertification, Land Degradation, Sustainable Land Management, Food Security, and Greenhouse Gas Fluxes in Terrestrial Ecosystems, 1st ed. Cambridge University Press: Cambridge, UK. pp. 345–436. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009157988.006

[3] United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD), 1994. United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification: In Those Countries Experiencing Serious Drought and/or Desertification, Particularly in Africa. United Nations General Assembly: New York, NY, USA. Available from: https://www.unccd.int/sites/default/files/2022-02/UNCCD_Convention_ENG_0_0.pdf

[4] United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD), 2025. World Overview of Conservation Approaches and Technologies (WOCAT). The Land Story. Country Experiences with Reporting on Land Degradation and Drought. UNCCD & WOCAT: Bonn, Germany. Available from: https://www.unccd.int/sites/default/files/2024-11/58214%20The%20Land%20Story_web.pdf (cited 28 May 2025).

[5] Al-Awadhi, J.M., Alkandary, D.S., 2024. Desertification and Land Degradation in the Arab States of the Gulf. In: Abd El-Aal, A.E.-A.K., Al-Enezi, A., Karam, Q.E. (Eds.). Environmental Hazards in the Arabian Gulf Region, Advances in Natural and Technological Hazards Research. Springer Nature: Cham, Switzerland. pp. 355–376. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-71836-6_13

[6] Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), 2022. The State of the World’s Land and Water Resources for Food and Agriculture 2021: Systems at Breaking Point. FAO: Rome, Italy. DOI: https://doi.org/10.4060/cb9910en

[7] Lal, R., 2004. Soil Carbon Sequestration Impacts on Global Climate Change and Food Security. Science. 304(5677), 1623–1627. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1097396

[8] Smith, P., Poch, R.M., Lobb, D.A., et al., 2024. Status of the World’s Soils. Annual Review of Environment and Resources. 49(1), 73–104. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-environ-030323-075629

[9] Hunakunti, A., McBratney, A.B., Minasny, B., 2025. Introducing an Exergy-Based Model for Soil Restoration: Quantifying Energy Demands for SOC Rebuilding. Geoderma. 461, 117474. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geoderma.2025.117474

[10] Mansour, A., Sharff, N.M., 2011. Estimating Desertification in the Arab World Using GIS Approach. Middle-East Journal of Scientific Research. 8(6), 1046–1053. IDOSI Publications: Dubai, UAE. Available from: https://www.idosi.org/mejsr/mejsr8%286%2911/7.pdf

[11] Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES), 2018. Assessment Report on Land Degradation and Restoration. IPBES: Bonn, Germany. Available from: https://www.ipbes.net/assessment-reports/ldr

[12] Ziadat, F., Conchedda, G., Haddad, F., et al., 2025. Desertification and Agrifood Systems: Restoration of Degraded Agricultural Lands in the Arab Region. Agriculture. 15(12), 1249. DOI: https://doi.org/10.3390/agriculture15121249

[13] Tian, H., Bian, Z., Shi, H., et al., 2022. History of Anthropogenic Nitrogen Inputs (HaNi) to the Terrestrial Biosphere: A 5 Arcmin Resolution Annual Dataset from 1860 to 2019. Earth System Science Data. 14(10), 4551–4568. DOI: https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-4551-2022

[14] SiehTarpeh, H., 2025. Assessing the Effect of Land Degradation on Farmer’s Livelihood: A Case of Muhanga District, Rwanda. DOI: https://doi.org/10.5281/ZENODO.15314536

[15] Gupta, G.S., 2019. Land Degradation and Challenges of Food Security. Review of European Studies. 11(1), 63. DOI: https://doi.org/10.5539/res.v11n1p63

[16] United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD), 2015. Towards a Land Degradation Neutral World: A Sustainable Development Priority. UNCCD: Bonn, Germany.

[17] Abd el-aal, A.E.-A.K., Al-Enezi, A., Karam, Q.E., 2024. Environmental Hazards in the Arabian Gulf Region: Assessments and Solutions, Advances in Natural and Technological Hazards Research. Springer Nature: Cham, Switzerland. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-71836-6

[18] Raouf, M., 2024. GCC States’ Initial Steps to Combat Desertification. The Gulf Research Center (GRC): Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. Available from: https://www.grc.net/single-commentary/164

[19] Statistical Center for the Cooperation Council for the Arab States of the Gulf (GCCSTAT), 2024. Land Use and Vegetation. GCCSTAT: Muscat, Oman. Available from: https://www.gccstats.org/en/statistic/publications/land-use-and-vegetation

[20] Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), 2007. Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Cambridge University Press: Cambridge, UK. Available from: https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/03/ar4_wg2_full_report.pdf

[21] Muhaimeed, A.S., Nassar, M., Katalan, B., 2025. Threats of Climate Change in Arab Gulf Countries. Journal of Scientific Research and Reports. 31(7), 207–230. DOI: https://doi.org/10.9734/jsrr/2025/v31i73242

[22] Sandeep, P., Reddy, G.P.O., Jegankumar, R., et al., 2021. Modeling and Assessment of Land Degradation Vulnerability in Semi-arid Ecosystem of Southern India Using Temporal Satellite Data, AHP and GIS. Environmental Modeling & Assessment. 26(2), 143–154. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10666-020-09739-1

[23] Shareef, M.A., Ameen, M.H., Ajaj, Q.M., 2021. Change Detection and Gis-Based Fuzzy Ahp to Evaluate the Degradation and Reclamation Land of Tikrit City, Iraq. Geodesy and cartography. 46(4), 194–203.

[24] Wang, G., Chen, J., Li, Q., et al., 2006. Quantitative Assessment of Land Degradation Factors Based on Remotely-Sensed Data and Cellular Automata: A Case Study of Beijing and Its Neighboring Areas. Environmental Sciences. 3(4), 239–253. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/15693430601063463

[25] Tucker, C.J., 1979. Red and Photographic Infrared Linear Combinations for Monitoring Vegetation. Remote Sensing of Environment. 8(2), 127–150. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/0034-4257(79)90013-0

[26] Piao, S., Yin, G., Tan, J., et al., 2015. Detection and Attribution of Vegetation Greening Trend in China Over the Last 30 Years. Global Change Biology. 21(4), 1601–1609. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.12795

[27] Ghazanfar, S.A., 2024. Biogeography and Conservation in the Arabian Peninsula: A Present Perspective. Plants. 13(15), 2091. DOI: https://doi.org/10.3390/plants13152091

[28] Rouse, J.W., Haas, R.H., Deering, D.W., et al., 1974. Monitoring the Vernal Advancement and Retrogradation (Green Wave Effect) of Natural Vegetation. NASA: Greenbelt, MD, USA. Available from: https://ntrs.nasa.gov/citations/19750020419

[29] Muhaimeed, A.S., Nassar, M., Katalan, B., 2025. The Threat of Climate Change to Vegetation Health and Land Degradation in Iraq’s Diverse Climatic Environment. American Journal of Agriculture and Forestry. 13(4), 198–217. DOI: https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ajaf.20251304.14

[30] Moussa, L.G., Mohan, M., Burmeister, N., et al., 2024. Mangrove Ecotourism along the Coasts of the Gulf Cooperation Council Countries: A Systematic Review. Land. 13(9), 1351. DOI: https://doi.org/10.3390/land13091351

[31] Rondon, M., Ewane, E.B., Abdullah, M.M., et al., 2023. Remote Sensing-Based Assessment of Mangrove Ecosystems in the Gulf Cooperation Council Countries: A Systematic Review. Frontiers in Marine Science. 10, 1241928. DOI: https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2023.1241928

[32] Balakrishnan, P., Abulibdeh, A., Abul Kasem Kabir, T., 2023. Assessment of the Impact of Anthropogenic Evolution and Natural Processes on Shoreline Dynamics Using Multi-Temporal Satellite Images and Statistical Analysis. Water. 15(8), 1440. DOI: https://doi.org/10.3390/w15081440

[33] Hamza, W., Munawar, M., 2009. Protecting and Managing the Arabian Gulf: Past, Present and Future. Aquatic Ecosystem Health & Management. 12(4), 429–439. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/14634980903361580

[34] Butler, J.D., Purkis, L.M., Purkis, S.J., et al., 2021. A Benthic Habitat Sensitivity Analysis of Qatar’ s Coastal Zone. Marine Pollution Bulletin. 167, 112333. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.marpolbul.2021.112333

Downloads

How to Cite

Muhaimeed, A. S., Sobhi Nassar, M., & Mohamed Katalan, B. (2026). Detecting Changes in Land Degradation Trends in the Arab Gulf Countries for the Period 2000 to 2020. Research in Ecology, 8(2), 67–79. https://doi.org/10.30564/re.v8i2.12128

Issue

Vol.8, Iss.2 (April 2026)(in progress)

Article Type

Article

License

Copyright © 2026 Ahmad Salih Muhaimeed, Mohamed Sobhi Nassar, Basem Mohamed Katalan

Creative Commons License

This is an open access article under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International (CC BY-NC 4.0) License.

Crossref
Scopus
Google Scholar
Europe PMC