Is Climate Change Fuel to Increase Intense Tropical Cyclones in the North Indian Ocean?

Authors

  • Krishna K. Muni

    College of Science and Technology, Department of Meteorology and Oceanography, Andhra University, Visakhapatnam 530003, India

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.30564/jasr.v8i4.10432
Received: 20 June 2025 | Revised: 18 August 2025 | Accepted: 25 August 2025 | Published Online: 3 September 2025

Abstract

In recent years, severe cyclonic storm (SCS) activity is increased in the North Indian Ocean (NIO), particularly in the central Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal. In the present study investigate the role of climate change on increasing intense severe cyclonic storms (Cat 4 & 5) at each 2.5° × 2.5° grid boxes in the NIO. Inter-governmental on Climate Change (IPCC) AR4 Model data sets for cyclone genesis parameters, sea surface temperature (SST) from Hadley Centre, cyclone tracks from Indian Meteorological Department and Joint Typhoon Warning Center during 1891–2010 is used. The study reveals stimulating results that the frequency of SCS increased during 1970–2010 (19) compared with 1891–1969 (12) at north of 15° N lat, but south of 15° N it is reversed in the Arabian Sea (AS) during southwest monsoon season(JJAS). In the Bay of Bengal (BoB) the scenario is reversed when compared with the Arabian Sea and the frequency of SCS was decreased in climate change environment. Strong latitudinal shift and increase the frequency of SCS is observed in the Arabian Sea during climate change scenario (1970–2010), but such phenomena is not noticed in the BoB. The main reason is reduction in vertical wind shear (easterly shear) along with increase in SSTs. To find out the relationship between the frequency of SCS and cyclone genesis parameters I did statistical tests, they also showed good results.

Keywords:

Cyclone; Sea Surface Temperature; Vertical Wind Shear; Climate Change; Arabian Sea; Bay of Bengal

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How to Cite

Muni, K. K. (2025). Is Climate Change Fuel to Increase Intense Tropical Cyclones in the North Indian Ocean?. Journal of Atmospheric Science Research, 8(4), 1–9. https://doi.org/10.30564/jasr.v8i4.10432

Issue

Vol. 8 , Iss. 4 (October 2025): In Progress

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Article

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Copyright © 2025 Krishna K. Muni

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This is an open access article under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International (CC BY-NC 4.0) License.

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