Sub-Seasonal Variability of Summer Monsoon Rainfall in CMIP6 Simulation over the Gangetic Plain of India

Authors

  • Devendra Kumar Tiwari

    Department of Environmental Science, Central University of South Bihar, Gaya 824236, India
  • Pradhan Parth Sarthi

    Department of Environmental Science, Central University of South Bihar, Gaya 824236, India

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.30564/jasr.v8i1.7903
Received: 7 December 2024 | Revised: 10 January 2024 | Accepted: 13 January 2025 | Published Online: 17 January 2025

Abstract

This current research work is focused on the performance of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) models in replicating Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) rainfall patterns, mainly focusing on the Gangatic Plain, spanning from 1979 to 2014. The evaluation employs rigorous validation against rainfall data from the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) and includes models with a resolution of 100km or less. Results highlight three standout models CMCC-CM2-SR5, EC-Earth3-AerChem, and CMCC-ESM2—for their commendable accuracy in capturing rainfall distribution in the Gangatic Plain. Monthly assessments reveal that these models closely mimic observed rainfall, unlike other models such as CMCC-CM2-HR4, CNRM-CM6-1-HR, EC-Earth3-CC, and MPI-ESM1-2-HR, which fail to replicate observed rainfall patterns. The simulated seasonal cycle of rainfall in CMCC-CM2-SR5 aligns well with observed patterns, especially for July, August, and September. Although there are some amplitude differences, CMCC-CM2-SR5 accurately represents the range and median of observed rainfall during these months. Interannual fluctuations in mean rainfall during the JJAS period can also be derived from observed data. Furthermore, CMCC-CM2-SR5, EC-Earth3-AerChem, and CMCC-ESM2 successfully capture interannual variability in July, August, and September, indicating substantial rainfall variability on a sub-seasonal scale across the Indian subcontinent. However, the assessment emphasizes the need for improved accuracy in depicting rainfall variability in CMIP6 models to bridge existing gaps between simulated and observed rainfall. Nevertheless, the study emphasizes the ongoing necessity for enhancements to ensure more accurate simulations and a closer match to actual rainfall variability in the examined CMIP6 models.

Keywords:

Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6; Indian Summer Monsoon; Gangatic Plain; Indian Meteorological Department; Rainfall Patterns; Resolution

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How to Cite

Tiwari, D. K., & Sarthi, P. P. (2025). Sub-Seasonal Variability of Summer Monsoon Rainfall in CMIP6 Simulation over the Gangetic Plain of India. Journal of Atmospheric Science Research, 8(1), 65–79. https://doi.org/10.30564/jasr.v8i1.7903

Issue

Vol. 8 , Iss. 1 (January 2025)

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Copyright © 2025 Devendra Kumar Tiwari , Pradhan Parth Sarthi

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This is an open access article under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International (CC BY-NC 4.0) License.

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