The Asymmetric Impact of Economic Complexity Index and Natural Resources Rents on Ecological Footprint in KSA: Empirical Evidence from Non-Linear ARDL

Authors

  • Mehdi Abid

    Department of Finance and Investment, College of Business, Jouf University, Sakaka 72388, Saudi Arabia
  • Hanane Abdelli

    Department of Economics, Faculty of Economic, Commercial and Management Sciences, University of 20 August 1955 Skikda, Skikda 21000, Algeria
  • Mona Elshaabany

    Department of Accounting, College of Business, Jouf University, Sakaka 72388, Saudi Arabia
  • Zouheyr Gheraia

    Department of Business Management, College of Business, Jouf University, Sakaka 72388, Saudi Arabia
  • Rania Alaa Eldin Ahmed Khedr

    School of Business and Economics, Badr University in Cairo-BUC, Badr City 4942340, Egypt

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.30564/re.v8i4.13394
Received: 8 April 2026 | Revised: 5 May 2026 | Accepted: 12 May 2026 | Published Online: 24 July 2026

Abstract

This paper examines the asymmetric effects of economic complexity and natural resources on the ecological footprint in Saudi Arabia over the period 1995–2021 using the nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) approach. The results reveal that increases in economic complexity significantly exacerbate environmental pressure in the long run, with a 1% rise in economic complexity increasing the ecological footprint by 0.12%, while a 1% decrease reduces it by 0.39%, highlighting strong asymmetry. In contrast, both positive and negative shocks to natural resource rents contribute to environmental improvement; specifically, a 1% increase in natural resources reduces the ecological footprint by 0.11%, while a decrease further contracts it by 0.29%. The asymmetric Granger causality analysis indicates a unidirectional causality running from the ecological footprint to positive shocks in natural resources, as well as from negative shocks in natural resources to the ecological footprint, while a bidirectional causal relationship exists between economic complexity and the ecological footprint. These findings underscore the importance of incorporating economic complexity into Saudi Arabia’s sustainability strategy by fostering innovation-driven diversification and green industrial transformation. To mitigate the environmental risks associated with economic development, policymakers should promote sustainable resource management, advance the green economy, and invest in innovative, low-pollution sectors.

Keywords:

Ecological Footprint; Economic Complexity; Natural Resources; NARDL; Saudi Arabia

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How to Cite

Abid, M., Abdelli, H., Elshaabany, M., Gheraia , Z., & Alaa Eldin Ahmed Khedr, R. (2026). The Asymmetric Impact of Economic Complexity Index and Natural Resources Rents on Ecological Footprint in KSA: Empirical Evidence from Non-Linear ARDL. Research in Ecology, 8(4), 126–141. https://doi.org/10.30564/re.v8i4.13394

Issue

Vol.8, Iss.4 (August 2026): In Progress

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Article

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Copyright © 2026 Mehdi Abid, Hanane Abdelli, Mona Elshaabany, Zouheyr Gheraia , Rania Alaa Eldin Ahmed Khedr

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This is an open access article under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International (CC BY-NC 4.0) License.

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